Auto parts sector has strong growth momentum
The performance of the auto sector is relatively strong. Not only do stocks such as FAW Car, FAW Xiali, etc., which have been engaged in business integration, continue to rise, but also the bottom of the stocks such as SAIC, which benefited from the policy of stimulating automobile consumption, Overall, the auto sector's performance this week is quite active. Under the stimulus of the news, it is expected to become a new strong stock cradle in the A-share market in the short to medium term.
Passenger car or current performance bottom point
Some analysts pointed out that the decline in passenger cars in March was significantly narrowed, and the auto industry is likely to usher in a turning point in recovery. The reasons given are: First, the tax effect appears. Since April 1st, 2019, the VAT rate has been lowered, and the tax avoidance effect stimulated the wholesale volume in March, which has suppressed the retail side. Some car companies consider the country to switch to inventory and also affect the wholesale and retail,As the tax avoidance effect weakens, the supply side will slow down, which will help the retail pressure to slow down, Moreover, as the value-added tax is lowered, some car companies will lower the retail price and stimulate consumption.
Second, consumer stimulus policies are expected to be introduced. According to media reports, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued a letter of opinion on the solicitation of the "Improvement of the promotion of automobile, home appliances, consumer electronics products and the promotion of circular economy development (2019-2020) (draft for comments). It is proposed to prohibit local governments from issuing new automobile purchase restriction policies, and plans to require cities that have already issued restrictions on purchases to shift their policies toward guidance. At the regular press conference held on Thursday, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it is understanding the relevant situation, and all the policies have been issued after repeated argumentation and full consultation with relevant parties. Judging from its statement, it shows that the probability of introducing a car consumption policy in the future is extremely high, and the market capacity of passenger cars is expected to expand rapidly,If we consider the factors such as the decline in value-added tax, the profit turning point of passenger car manufacturers is expected.
Heavy trucks and new energy vehicles are more clear
Against the background of the convergence of passenger car sales, the business highlights of related segments in other areas of the car are more prominent.
Heavy trucks. In March, heavy truck sales reached 149,000 units, up 7.1% year-on-year; natural gas heavy trucks sold 9,569 units in March, up 326.5% year-on-year, which became the main factor supporting the growth of heavy truck market. Some insiders speculate that, thanks to multiple factors such as infrastructure overweight and environmental protection upgrades, heavy truck sales in 2019 are expected to reach about 1 million units, Judging from this, the performance of the relevant stocks in the heavy truck industry chain is worth looking forward to, and the performance of stocks such as Weichai Power and Weifu Hi-Tech may increase further.
New energy vehicles. In March, sales of new energy vehicles reached 126,000 units, an increase of 85.4% year-on-year. Among them, new energy passenger vehicles increased by 92.6% year-on-year, and commercial vehicles increased by 16.1% year-on-year. According to the data of the Association, the A00, A0 and A grades of pure electric passenger vehicles increased by -18%, 461% and 392% respectively in March 2019. The A-class vehicles became the main force of sales growth, driven by policy guidance and market demand. Under the product upgrade effect, BYD, BAIC New Energy, Geely Automobile's new energy passenger car sales ranked in the top three, Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile, Huatai Automobile's new energy passenger car also achieved rapid growth in March.
It is in the context of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy that the new energy passenger car can achieve such a huge growth rate, showing that the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars is accelerating. It is expected that with the further improvement of future battery life and other factors, China's new energy vehicles will have more room for development. This is obviously not only conducive to the performance growth of related listed companies in the new energy automobile industry chain, but also beneficial to the post-service of new energy vehicles. The market, for example, the development of the charging industry chain.
Strong growth in parts and components
Of course, as far as China's automobile industry is concerned, the competitive advantage of the current vehicle manufacturing industry has not yet fully reflected. This is not only reflected in the fact that the engine technology level of the core components is still far from the world advanced level, and the brand influence There is still a long way to go. In general, in the field of passenger car vehicles, in the context of slowing industry capacity growth, it is difficult to make a big move in the short term, while heavy trucks and new energy vehicles have certain investment due to the rapid growth of the market. opportunity.
It should be noted that the growth momentum of related listed companies in China's auto parts industry chain is strong, because the industrial scale advantage has driven China's parts and components listed companies to successfully enter the global vehicle supply chain, such as Fuyao Glass and Weifu. Gaoke, Huayu Automobile, FAW Fuwei, Dongpu, Yunhai Metal, Xingyu and other varieties. Among them, Fuyao Glass has become a global company. At the same time, the improvement of the penetration rate of smart cars, the implementation of the Internet of Vehicles, the increase of the penetration rate of new energy-powered vehicles, etc., are all opportunities for China’s auto parts to overtake the corners of the car, and also the pursuit of the global automotive industry by China’s auto industry. Opportunity. Recently, Huawei and other smart manufacturing leaders have expressed their ambition to use intelligentization to transform traditional cars. This has injected a steady stream of growth momentum for listed companies in the automotive electronics and car networking sectors. The future development momentum of such stocks is more sufficient and investment opportunities are clearer.